11 July 2025

Daily Newsletter

Trump Threatens 35% Tariff on Canadian Goods Starting August

The Facts

  • U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday he will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting Aug. 1, escalating from the current 25% rate, citing Canada's alleged failure to stop fentanyl flow and trade retaliation as justification for the increased levies.

  • Trump also criticized Canada's dairy supply management system, falsely claiming of tariffs up to 400% on U.S. dairy products while offering to eliminate tariffs if Canadian companies manufacture products within the U.S. instead of importing them.

  • The tariff threat was conveyed in a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, posted on Truth Social, warning that any Canadian retaliatory tariffs would be added to the 35% base rate. Trump stated that the levies could be modified based on the relationship between the countries.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

These tariffs are necessary to protect American workers and address Canada's unfair trade practices. Canada has failed to stop the fentanyl crisis that's killing Americans and instead retaliated with tariffs rather than working cooperatively. Trump's action is justified as the trade deficit with Canada poses a threat to the American economy and national security.

Anti-Trump narrative

The tariff threats are based on false premises since data clearly shows that minimal fentanyl comes from Canada compared to Mexico. Canada has already invested $1.3 billion in border security and appointed a fentanyl czar, demonstrating a genuine commitment to addressing U.S. concerns through cooperation rather than confrontation. Trump's threat is baseless.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that the U.S. Congress will pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

ICC Finds War Crimes Evidence in Sudan's Darfur Region

The Facts

  • International Criminal Court (ICC) Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan told the UN Security Council on Thursday that there are "reasonable grounds to believe that war crimes and crimes against humanity" are being committed in Sudan's western Darfur region.

  • The ICC investigation has collected over 7,000 items of evidence during the past six months, including documentary, testimonial, and digital evidence gathered from refugee camps in neighboring Chad where victims fled the conflict.

  • Evidence suggests that sexual violence, including rape and gender-based assault, is being systematically used as a weapon of war, with an "inescapable pattern of offending" targeting women and girls from specific ethnic communities in Darfur.


The Spin

Narrative A

The ICC's findings represent crucial accountability for systematic atrocities in Darfur. Sexual violence is being weaponized against specific ethnic groups, and the evidence collected from over 7,000 items demonstrates clear patterns of war crimes. Justice must be delivered to perpetrators who believe they operate with impunity.

Narrative B

The ICC faces significant obstacles, including limited resources, obstruction of investigators, and lack of cooperation from some states. The court's "critically low" funding, relative to the scale of the allegations, hampers effective prosecution efforts. More international support is needed to ensure proper investigation and accountability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Pentagon Launches Major Drone Overhaul to Counter Adversaries

The Facts

  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced sweeping changes to U.S. military drone policy Thursday, allowing commanders at colonel and captain levels to independently procure and test drones without traditional approval processes, and reclassifies small drones as consumable commodities.

  • The Pentagon aims to establish drone dominance by 2027, with every Army squad equipped with low-cost, expendable drones by October 2026, prioritizing Indo-Pacific Command units. Military services must create dedicated experimental formations by September 2025 to accelerate small drone deployment.

  • Hegseth cited Ukraine's drone warfare success, noting drones account for most casualties in the conflict and that adversaries collectively produce millions of cheap drones annually. This comes after operations like Ukraine's Spider's Web saw Russian strategic bombers attacked using smuggled drones.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This drone revolution is long overdue and absolutely necessary for national security. America's adversaries have been churning out millions of cheap, lethal drones while the Pentagon was drowning in bureaucratic red tape. The new policy finally unleashes American innovation and manufacturing prowess, giving warfighters the tools they need to dominate the modern battlefield.

Establishment-critical narrative

This rushed drone expansion raises serious concerns about oversight and accountability in military procurement. Bypassing traditional acquisition processes and treating lethal weapons as consumables could lead to dangerous shortcuts and inadequate testing. The focus on speed over safety reflects a concerning militaristic approach that prioritizes aggression over prudent defense planning.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that an aerial drone terrorist attack will result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Robot Performs Surgery Autonomously With 100% Success Rate

The Facts

  • Johns Hopkins University researchers have developed a surgical robot called SRT-H that successfully performed gallbladder removal procedures on pig cadavers with 100% accuracy across eight trials, completing 17 complex surgical tasks — including identifying ducts and arteries, placing clips, and cutting tissue with scissors.

  • According to their study published in the journal Science Robotics, the robot was trained using videos of human surgeons performing gallbladder removals — with captions describing each task — and utilized the same machine learning architecture that powers ChatGPT to respond to voice commands and learn from feedback in real-time during operations.

  • Unlike previous surgical robots that required specially marked tissue and predetermined surgical plans, SRT-H adapted to anatomical variations and unexpected scenarios, including changes in starting position and blood-like dyes that altered tissue appearance.


The Spin

Techno-optimist narrative

This is a revolutionary leap toward safer, more accessible healthcare. This robot's 100% success rate and ability to adapt to real-world surgical complications demonstrate that AI can match expert human performance, reduce surgical errors, and expand access to quality care in underserved areas.

Techno-skeptic narrative

While impressive, significant safety concerns remain before human trials can begin. The robot required self-correction six times per case and needed human intervention to change instruments, raising questions about reliability in life-threatening situations where split-second decisions matter most.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the first fully autonomous surgery or procedure will be performed on a human by December 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Argentina Senate Passes Pension Increase Despite Milei Opposition

The Facts

  • Argentina's Senate on Thursday passed legislation increasing pensions by 7.2% and raising the minimum pension bonus from 70,000 to 110,000 pesos, with 52 votes in favor and four abstentions, directly challenging President Javier Milei's fiscal austerity strategy.

  • Milei immediately vowed to veto the pension legislation, arguing it threatens the country's fiscal surplus and could cost up to 2.5% of Argentina's gross domestic product, potentially erasing budget gains achieved through his spending cuts.

  • The opposition-controlled Senate session was validated by Vice President Victoria Villarruel despite government objections, leading Milei to call her a "traitor" and Security Minister Patricia Bullrich to label the proceedings an "institutional coup."


The Spin

Pro-government narrative

Milei's austerity measures are essential for Argentina's economic stability after decades of fiscal irresponsibility. The pension increases threaten to destroy the hard-won fiscal surplus and could reignite inflation that was finally brought under control. These populist measures represent the same failed policies that led Argentina into repeated economic crises.

Government-critical narrative

The pension increases are necessary to help vulnerable retirees who have lost significant purchasing power due to inflation and austerity cuts. The current minimum pension falls below the poverty line, and elderly citizens deserve dignity after contributing to society throughout their working lives. Milei's extreme cuts have gone too far at the expense of the most vulnerable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Argentina's year-over-year inflation will be below 30% for December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Slovakia Blocks EU Sanctions on Russia Over Gas Phase-Out

The Facts

  • Slovakia has maintained its veto on the EU's 18th sanctions package against Russia, blocking approval during multiple meetings of EU ambassadors in Brussels as the country demands guarantees regarding the proposed phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027-2028.

  • Prime Minister Robert Fico has conditioned Slovakia's support on receiving financial compensation, guaranteed access to affordable gas, maintained transit fees, and legal protection against potential Gazprom lawsuits worth €16-20 billion ($18.7-23.3 billion) related to contract termination.

  • The sanctions package targets Russia's financial and energy sectors, including restrictions on the Nord Stream pipelines, and comes as Moscow launched record-breaking drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian cities, creating urgency among member states.


The Spin

Narrative A

After 17 sanctions packages already passed, Fico is rightfully standing up for his country against European elites who don't care how their geopolitical schemes affect sovereign nations. Slovakia's industries rely on affordable Russian gas, which is why Fico must defy Brussels to protect households and businesses from soaring prices. The EU has no right to impose its rogue agenda upon the people of Slovakia.

Narrative B

Fico is protecting Russian interests, not Slovakia's. His reliance on Russian gas, despite Moscow's energy blackmail in Moldova and Transnistria, risks Europe's sovereignty. By obstructing EU efforts to diversify energy, Fico is driving up costs for Slovaks, as seen in Moldova's price hikes. His pro-Russia stance isolates Slovakia, weakens EU unity, and undermines competitiveness, hurting his own nation's future.

Nerd narrative

There is a 12% chance that either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline will unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Poll: 79% of Americans Approve of Immigration

The Facts

  • According to a new Gallup poll conducted from June 2-26, a record 79% of Americans now view immigration as beneficial for the country, marking a 15% increase from 64% in 2024.

  • The percentage of Americans who favor decreasing immigration fell from 55% in 2024 to 30%, while 38% prefer maintaining current levels and 26% support an increase.

  • The share of Republicans who view immigration as beneficial jumped from 39% to 64%, while those wanting decreased immigration fell from 88% to 48%.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

This poll shows Americans are rejecting Trump's extreme immigration agenda by a staggering 62%. It's not even Democrats swaying the numbers, as less than half of Republicans support reducing immigration, and 64% view immigration positively. Effectively, every immigration talking point Trump ran on is being rejected, and Trump has no constituency to cling to.

Republican narrative

Americans voted for Trump's tough immigration stance and still support it despite media and political spin. Trump's deportations to third countries align with immigration law, backed by Congress and the Supreme Court. No matter how loudly liberals scream about "unfairness," they won't erase the mandate to secure the border and enforce the law.

Progressive narrative

Both parties are complicit in enabling Trump's harsh deportation regime through a budget bill that hides a $70 billion Immigration and Customs Enforcement expansion amid social welfare cuts. This unprecedented funding empowers private contractors to profit from mass detention and deportations, targeting long-term, law-abiding immigrants, undermining American values, and threatening economic stability.

Conservative narrative

Trump has betrayed voters by softening on mass deportations, mimicking weak Democratic policies. Despite promises to prioritize Americans, Trump is now considering amnesty for illegals in agriculture and hospitality, shielding employers who exploit cheap labor and commit felonies like identity theft. This backtrack harms Americans, depresses wages, and rewards lawbreakers, showing Trump doesn't deliver.

See sources

Detained Activist Mahmoud Khalil Seeks $20M From Trump Administration

The Facts

  • Mahmoud Khalil, a 30-year-old former Columbia University graduate student and Palestinian activist, filed a $20 million claim against the Trump administration on Thursday, alleging false imprisonment, malicious prosecution, and defamation during his 104-day immigration detention.

  • Khalil was arrested by plainclothes Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents at his Manhattan apartment in March while returning from dinner with his pregnant wife, and was then transported to a Louisiana detention facility without a warrant, according to his legal filing.

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that Khalil's pro-Palestinian campus activism posed "serious adverse foreign policy consequences" for the United States by invoking a provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952. Khalil was never charged with a criminal offense.


The Spin

Republican narrative

The Trump administration rightfully detained a dangerous activist who terrorized Jewish students and supported Hamas. Khalil's campus activities created a hostile environment for Jewish students and undermined America's foreign policy interests in the Middle East. The government acted within its legal authority to protect national security and combat antisemitism on college campuses.

Democratic narrative

This case represents a chilling attack on First Amendment rights and peaceful protest. Khalil was detained without criminal charges for exercising his constitutional right to criticize U.S. foreign policy and advocate for Palestinian rights. The administration's actions constitute political retaliation designed to silence dissent and intimidate activists.

Nerd narrative

There is a 25% chance that at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE will occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UN: US AIDS Funding Cuts Could Cause 4 Million Deaths by 2029

The Facts

  • The U.N. warned that sudden U.S. funding cuts to global HIV programs could result in 4 million additional AIDS-related deaths and 6 million new HIV infections by 2029 if the $4 billion in pledged support is not replaced.

  • President Donald Trump ordered the suspension of all foreign aid in January 2025, effectively halting the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which was launched in 2003 by President George W. Bush as the largest single-disease commitment by any country. The Trump administration paused USAID aid in January, later issuing waivers for maternal-child-transmission treatment, but many prevention services remained suspended amid confusion and staff layoffs.

  • PEPFAR had supported HIV testing for 84.1 million people and treatment for 20.6 million people globally, with the program funding 99.9% of Nigeria's budget for HIV prevention medicines before the cuts took effect.


The Spin

Republican narrative

President Trump's responsible decision to cut foreign aid represents prudent fiscal stewardship and America First priorities. The U.S. has already contributed billions through these programs over two decades, and it's time for other nations to step up and take responsibility for their health challenges. American taxpayers shouldn't bear the burden of funding global health programs.

Democratic narrative

The abrupt withdrawal of U.S. funding without warning has created a humanitarian catastrophe that will reverse decades of progress against HIV/AIDS. This reckless decision abandons vulnerable populations and undermines America's global leadership in public health, potentially causing millions of preventable deaths and infections.

Nerd narrative

There is a 34% chance that the PEPFAR program will cease to exist before January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UN Warns Rohingya Refugee Services Face Collapse Amid Funding Crisis

The Facts

  • The U.N.'s refugee agency (UNHCR) warned that essential services for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are at risk of collapsing due to funding shortfalls, with UNHCR's $255 million appeal is only 35% funded as of Friday.

  • The agency said Bangladesh has received around 150,000 Rohingya refugees over the past 18 months, marking the largest influx from Myanmar since 2017, when 750,000 fled deadly violence in Rakhine State. The UN added that biometric identification has helped deliver aid to new arrivals.

  • More than one million Rohingya refugees are currently crammed into camps covering just 24 square kilometers (9.2 square miles) in Cox's Bazar, southeastern Bangladesh, making it one of the world's most densely populated refugee settlements.


The Spin

Narrative A

These warnings are a last resort cry of desperation, as global aid cuts, particularly from major donors like the U.S., have been crushing refugee programs for months. From Bangladesh and South Sudan to Burkina Faso and Haiti, millions of lives are now at risk if world powers — which historically could always be relied upon — don't reverse course.

Narrative B

These U.N. relief campaigns don't actually help the countries and people they claim to. USAID, for example, has long been used to fund dirty espionage operations rather than to feed or house refugees. Residents from these countries know this, and until the Western powers in charge clean up this rotten system, no one should support the U.N.'s ineffective aid programs.

Cynical narrative

There's a much more dehumanizing side to U.N. aid programs beyond simple underfunding and efficacy problems. Rohingyas have been forced to sign up for so-called "Smart Cards," which use biometric data to track refugees, and without which they're not allowed to access food. Without adequate explanations of what these cards are, refugees are treated like guinea pigs in this new surveillance experiment.

See sources