Brazil: Bolsonaro Starts 27-Year Jail Term for Coup Plot
Brazil's Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to begin serving a 27-year prison sentence for his conviction in plotting a coup after the 2022 election loss. It also ruled that all appeals have been exhausted, making the conviction final.
Bolsonaro, 70, allegedly tampered with his electronic ankle monitor using a soldering iron, leading to his preventive detention in Brasilia on Saturday. His defense claimed the action resulted from medication-induced hallucinations and requested house arrest on health grounds, but the court denied this.
The court also ordered the commencement of sentences for several Bolsonaro co-defendants, including Walter Braga Netto — sentenced to 26 years — Anderson Torres (24 years), Almir Garnier (24 years), Augusto Heleno (21 years), and Alexandre Ramagem (16 years).
Left narrative
Brazil's conviction of Bolsonaro finally holds a leader accountable, proving the Supreme Court safeguards democracy. This contrasts with the U.S. failure to prosecute Trump, sending a clear message that coup attempts face consequences. Cries of judicial dictatorship mask a push for impunity, but this ruling strengthens Brazil's fragile institutions against authoritarianism.
Right narrative
Bolsonaro's trial reeks of political persecution, with baseless charges ignoring his denial and the full right to defense he exercised. The Supreme Court's overreach in convicting him to 27 years sets a dangerous precedent, fueling appeals and amnesty efforts that could rightfully free him. His enduring influence ensures supporters rally against this witch hunt, keeping his legacy alive in Brazil's polarized politics.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Witkoff to Meet Putin as Trump Hails 'Tremendous Progress' on Ukraine Peace Deal
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that "tremendous progress" was being made on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, stating, "there are only a few remaining points of disagreement."
In an effort to get over the line, Trump added that he had directed envoy Steve Witkoff to travel to Moscow for a further meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is to again meet with the Ukrainians.
Trump concluded by saying he was looking forward to meeting Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but cautioned that such a meeting would take place "ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages."
Pro-Trump narrative
Over the past week, the U.S. has made tremendous progress on its way to securing a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. There are still some points of disagreement that need further work. However, these are not insurmountable — hopefully an agreement is imminent.
Anti-Trump narrative
Despite the Trump administration's talk of progress, a source has identified points of friction that remain between Russia and Ukraine on the agreement. These issues — on territorial concessions, troop numbers and NATO admission — are bitterly disagreed upon by both sides, so to say we are nearly there is a massive overstatement.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine, working alongside its partners in the U.S., has developed a framework for a peace deal that it's prepared to move forward with. However, there are still some sensitive issues that need to be resolved. President Zelenskyy is ready to meet President Trump to discuss these issues, and the involvement of European countries could also be beneficial.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has received multiple versions of the framework agreement through unofficial channels. To avoid confusion and complications, Russia is awaiting official clarification. These matters will be looked at more detail when the Kremlin welcomes U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff next week.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that Donald Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Jakarta Becomes World's Most Populous City With 42M People
Jakarta, Indonesia's capital, has become the world's most populous city with approximately 42 million residents, surpassing Tokyo, which has held the top position since 2000, according to the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects 2025 report.
Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital, ranks second globally with nearly 37 million people and is projected to become the world's largest city by 2050, while Tokyo's population of 33 million is expected to decline to 30.7 million by mid-century.
Nine of the 10 most populous cities worldwide are located in Asia, with Cairo, Egypt, being the only non-Asian city in the top-10 rankings.
Narrative A
Jakarta remains a city of widespread economic opportunity. The capital attracts billions in investment and offers unmatched access to networks, careers and personal growth that simply doesn't exist elsewhere in Indonesia.
Narrative B
Jakarta has become an exceptionally challenging urban environment where 70% of households live in substandard housing and nearly 19% endure slum conditions. The megacity faces environmental catastrophe with ongoing flooding threats, dangerous land subsidence and toxic air quality.
Study: UK Could Lose 3M Jobs to AI by 2035
Between 1 and 3 million low-skilled jobs in the U.K. economy could disappear by 2035 due to the rise of AI, according to a report published on Tuesday by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER).
The NFER projects that AI automation will primarily affect roles in administrative, secretarial, customer service and machine-operative sectors, with these industries projected to lose at least 800,000 jobs by 2035.
Overall, the NFER expects the U.K. economy to create approximately 2.3 million jobs by 2035, with most concentrated in professional and technical occupations, such as science, engineering and law, which could expand by at least 2.5 million roles.
Techno-optimist narrative
Despite claims to the contrary, AI represents a massive opportunity for job creation across all skill levels. AI factories and infrastructure will generate demand for everyone from software engineers to steel workers, creating new industries and advanced trades that did not exist before, as well as new AI-powered tools and services that will require human expertise to build, maintain and operate.
Techno-skeptic narrative
The U.K. job market could be decimated by 2035 if AI continues to develop at its current pace. While professional jobs may grow, they will fail to compensate for lost work by demanding too many qualifications and too much reskilling from ordinary workers. The government must take urgent steps to address this challenge before it spirals out of control.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 14.8% of current workers will be replaced by AI systems performing end-to-end labor in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Detect Gamma Rays That May Reveal Dark Matter
University of Tokyo Professor Tomonori Totani analyzed 15 years of data from NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and detected gamma rays with 20 gigaelectronvolts energy extending in a halo structure toward the Milky Way's center — potentially the first direct evidence of the existence of dark matter.
The observed gamma-ray emissions match theoretical predictions for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMP) annihilation, suggesting that dark matter particles are approximately 500 times more massive than protons.
Dark matter is theorized to comprise 27% of the universe, while ordinary matter, like stars and planets, accounts for only about 5% of the universe's total composition — the rest is made up of something called dark energy.
Narrative A
Dark matter is nothing more than a scientific mirage that physicists have been chasing for decades. New theories show that wobbly spacetime fluctuations can explain galactic rotation and cosmic expansion without needing invisible matter that's never been directly observed.
Narrative B
Scientists have finally captured the first direct evidence of dark matter using NASA's Fermi telescope, detecting powerful gamma-ray radiation from colliding dark matter particles. This observation matches theoretical predictions perfectly and marks humanity's first glimpse of the invisible substance.
Nerd narrative
There is a 52% chance we will know what Dark Matter is before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ethiopian Volcano Erupts After 12K Years
The Hayli Gubbi volcano in Ethiopia's Afar region erupted on Sunday morning for the first time in approximately 12,000 years, sending ash plumes across the Red Sea toward Yemen and Oman.
Local administrator Mohammed Seid reported no casualties from the eruption but expressed concerns about economic impacts on livestock herders, noting that ash-covered villages left animals with little to eat.
Residents described the eruption as feeling like a sudden bomb explosion with smoke and ash, while the neighboring village of Afdera remained covered in volcanic debris, stranding tourists heading to the Danakil Desert.
Narrative A
This massive volcanic eruption proves how dangerously unprepared the world is for natural disasters. The ash cloud affected multiple countries, including India and Pakistan, yet experts admit the region is completely "understudied" and that there was no real warning system in place. While officials claim there were no casualties, pastoral communities face severe impacts that could have been prevented with proper monitoring.
Narrative B
Scientists successfully predicted this volcanic activity and responded immediately to study it. Researchers had detected clear warning signs, including ground movement, magma intrusion, and surface changes, before the eruption. The remote location minimized human impact, and experts quickly mobilized to collect samples and analyze the event, demonstrating effective scientific monitoring.
Judge Dismisses Trump Georgia Election Case
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee dismissed the Georgia election interference case against President Donald Trump and his co-defendants on Wednesday after prosecutor Peter Skandalakis filed a motion to drop all charges.
Skandalakis took over the case after Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis was disqualified due to her relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade, whom she had hired to lead the prosecution team.
The original indictment, filed in August 2023, charged Trump and 18 co-defendants under Georgia's racketeering law, alleging they participated in a criminal enterprise to overturn the 2020 election results in the state.
Republican narrative
This long-awaited case dismissal ends another shameful chapter of Democrat weaponization of the justice system against Trump for political gain. Fani Willis turned the prosecution into a corrupt circus with her misconduct and conflicts of interest. This politically motivated prosecution was always a failed attempt to influence elections through leftist lawfare.
Democratic narrative
This dismissal shouldn't be spun as vindication but as another example of Trump escaping accountability. Trump openly pressured officials to pursue his enemies, installed loyalists to bend the Justice Department to his will, and engaged in unprecedented self-dealing. Brushing this off as "lawfare" requires ignoring documented abuses that far exceed anything his opponents have done. The Georgia case is egregious in its scope.
Cynical narrative
Whether Americans are for or against Trump in this case, this news doesn't settle the matter for many Americans. For those seeking more answers surrounding Trump's alleged fake elector scheme, it appears this case has dragged on too long and won't be tried again, given that Trump is now president. The same is true for those who wanted answers surrounding alleged Democrat meddling in Georgia. The country is still very polarized, and the only cure is to thoroughly investigate alleged corruption on both sides.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Admin Announces Medicare Price Cuts For 15 Drugs
The Trump administration late Tuesday announced negotiated prices for 15 prescription drugs under Medicare's drug price negotiation program. According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), the new prices take effect in 2027 and are expected to save Medicare $12 billion annually compared to previous spending levels.
The 15 drugs selected for negotiation include widely used medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy for diabetes and weight loss, cancer treatments, inhalers and depression medications, and account for $42.5 billion in Medicare Part D spending in 2024.
The negotiated price reductions range from 38% to 85% off list prices, with Ozempic priced at $277 monthly and Wegovy at $386 monthly, though Medicare already receives confidential discounts that make actual savings difficult to determine.
Republican narrative
Trump's Medicare drug negotiations have delivered $12 billion in savings, driven by bold leadership that crushed Big Pharma's price gouging. The administration achieved 44% price cuts compared to Biden's weak 22% reductions last year. Real results like Ozempic dropping to $274 monthly prove Trump's team works to improve America's health care system and fights harder for seniors than previous failed efforts.
Democratic narrative
Trump's drug price announcement was a rushed publicity stunt that actually delivered worse deals than existing agreements. He quietly released the results at 6 p.m., without press events, and hid that negotiated prices were higher than the voluntary deals already secured. Medicare beneficiaries were shortchanged by $276 for Ozempic, compared to the $245 price already available. These negotiated prices are designed to avoid attention.
Establishment-critical narrative
Government price-setting policies risk undermining the engine of medical innovation. Even a modest reduction in expected U.S. revenues can prompt companies to pare back research and development. The consequence is stark Breakthroughs for chronic diseases or novel cancers may be delayed or abandoned because firms no longer see sufficient return on investment to justify costly, high-risk development — trading tomorrow’s cures for today’s savings.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that the U.S. federal government will pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hong Kong Apartment Fire Kills at Least 36, Leaves 279 Missing
A fire at the Wang Fuk Court housing complex in Hong Kong's Tai Po district on Wednesday killed at least 36 people and left 279 missing. Flames reportedly spread through bamboo scaffolding across seven of eight residential blocks in the development.
Fire services director Andy Yeung reported that styrofoam material discovered inside the burning buildings made the blaze more aggressive, while security secretary Chris Tang described the fire's speed as "unusual."
The incident was classified as a level 5 fire, the highest emergency rating used in nearly two decades, and 888 firefighters were deployed to battle flames that burned for more than 10 hours across the 32-story towers.
Pro-government narrative
Hong Kong authorities mobilized massive resources with 767 personnel, 128 fire engines and 57 ambulances responding to the deadly blaze. They provided comprehensive support, including food, temporary housing for over 700 displaced residents and mental health services. Xi's condolences demonstrate strong mainland support in the wake of this tragedy.
Government-critical narrative
This preventable disaster stems from Hong Kong's dangerous reliance on outdated bamboo scaffolding despite known safety risks. Officials admit the fire spread was unusual and shouldn't have happened with proper materials. The government's own development bureau was trying to phase out bamboo due to its high combustibility and safety concerns.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by February 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Two National Guard Members Shot Near White House
Two West Virginia National Guard members were shot Wednesday afternoon near the White House, with emergency responders arriving at the scene around 2:18 p.m. ET.
FBI Director Kash Patel and Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser confirmed the injured Guard members were in critical condition, while West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey initially reported the troops had died before retracting his statement, citing conflicting reports.
Law enforcement officials stated the suspect, identified as 29-year-old Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, approached the soldiers and opened fire, with at least one Guard member returning gunfire. The New York Post reported that the suspect was shot four times and taken to the hospital. According to Bowser, he acted on his own.
Pro-Trump narrative
The targeted ambush of two National Guardsmen near the White House proves exactly why Trump's deployment of troops to secure D.C. was necessary. Crime has dropped historically since the Guard arrived, and this cowardly attack on America's heroes only strengthens the resolve to keep America's capital safe. Adding 500 more troops is the right response to those who would commit violence against the nation's defenders.
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump's military occupation of D.C. was already ruled likely unlawful by federal courts, and now his illegal deployment has put soldiers in harm's way for political theater. The Guard was sent to address a crime emergency that didn't exist, as Justice Department data showed crime was already falling. This shooting exposes the dangerous consequences of using troops for unconstitutional law enforcement missions.
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