Pro-Trump narrative

Trump's Greenland framework deal represents a major diplomatic victory that secures American national security interests in the Arctic while avoiding military conflict. The agreement gets everything needed for defense and international security, protecting the region from Russian and Chinese expansion without resorting to force. Markets rallied sharply on the news, proving investors recognize this as smart dealmaking that strengthens NATO while backing away from economically damaging tariffs.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's supposed Greenland deal is a transparent face-saving maneuver with no actual substance behind the grand announcement. European diplomats confirm there's no real framework yet, just Trump needing an off-ramp after realizing his deranged threats against allies were politically toxic and tanking markets. The whole episode proves Trump's word means nothing, as he threatened tariffs on countries that had already negotiated trade deals with him in good faith.

Nerd narrative

There is an 11% chance that the United States will gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The Board of Peace is a necessary correction to international institutions that have failed for decades to resolve conflicts or guarantee security. It grants Trump sustained leadership authority and enforcement power while requiring billion-dollar commitments for permanent seats, creating a results-based structure that replaces hollow multilateral rituals. By looking beyond Gaza and engaging powerful leaders directly, the board seeks to restore stability through leverage rather than norms, where the existing rules-based international order has repeatedly failed.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump’s so-called Board of Peace marks a dangerous power grab that bypasses established international institutions and concentrates authority in one man’s hands. It grants him indefinite chairmanship with veto power while demanding billion-dollar payments for permanent seats, creating a pay-to-play scheme that undermines the U.N.’s multilateral framework. With no mention of Gaza despite its stated purpose, and invitations extended to war criminals like Netanyahu, Blair and autocrats like Putin, the board risks hollowing out the rules-based international order.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

When Bill Gates rolls out his “philanthropic” agenda in Africa, caution is warranted — especially when OpenAI is now part of the effort. The Gates Foundation’s push into African health care reflects a familiar pattern of imposing Western industrial models that have already failed farmers and communities. The same foundation that drove AGRA’s disastrous green revolution — increasing hunger by 31% while degrading soil and locking farmers into costly corporate inputs — now seeks to reshape health systems with Global North AI, sidelining local knowledge, accountability and sovereignty.

Pro-establishment narrative

AI offers a pragmatic response to Africa’s severe health care worker shortage, an approach promoted by Bill Gates to scale care where human capacity is limited. These tools can improve diagnosis, reduce administrative burden and extend services to underserved communities without waiting decades for new staff. Rwanda’s AI-powered Health Intelligence Center shows how technology can close gaps that traditional hiring would take generations to address. In overstretched health systems, AI can compress time, amplify expertise and save lives.

Nerd narrative

There is a 44% chance that there will be a major AI-related health care class action lawsuit before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-government narrative

In this time of tragedy, there is no room for politics. New Zealanders must unite in their grief and resilience to support the heroic efforts of first responders, local communities and everyday citizens in tackling this crisis. The Luxon government will bolster these endeavors by committing its resources to building a path toward recovery.

Government-critical narrative

Despite what the Luxon government may claim, these landslides and the weather events that triggered them are inherently political. Natural disasters such as these do not occur out of thin air; they materialize from the government's refusal to tackle the climate crisis. If New Zealanders wish to avoid further tragedies, then they must prioritize climate action.

Climate-skeptic narrative

It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century, as measured by its impact on GDP, will be at least 16.5%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

The prosecution of Chow Hang-tung, Lee Cheuk-yan, and Albert Ho is a cynical attempt by Beijing to criminalize three decades of peaceful remembrance. The Alliance's Victoria Park vigils, June 4 Museum and advocacy for democratic reform were nonviolent acts protected under expression and assembly rights. Detaining them for over 1,500 days and threatening up to 10 years’ imprisonment exposes the National Security Law as a tool to silence dissent, punish historical memory and shield the CCP from accountability.

Pro-China narrative

This trial aims to fairly uphold Hong Kong’s National Security Law. The Alliance's goal of ending one-party rule directly challenges the CCP’s constitutional leadership — the cornerstone of China's socialist system — and is therefore inherently unlawful. As prosecutors argue, advocacy through recruitment, fundraising, and museum activities after June 2020 amounted to incitement to subvert state power under the NSL. The courts' actions follow the precedent of Jimmy Lai’s trial, protecting national security while applying the law transparently and independently.

Anti-Trump narrative

ICE's secret memo authorizing forced home entry with administrative warrants — not judicial warrants — violates Fourth Amendment protections and contradicts the agency's own training materials. This flagrant constitutional breach allows agents to kick down doors without a judge's approval, terrifying immigrant communities and undermining decades of established legal precedent.

Pro-Trump narrative

The memo empowers ICE agents to act swiftly and consistently, closing loopholes that allow dangerous individuals to evade enforcement by refusing entry. Administrative warrants are lawful tools, and clearer authority can improve officer safety and operational effectiveness.

Narrative A

Haiti's TPC is rightfully exercising sovereign authority by removing Prime Minister Fils-Aimé after five of seven members voted for his dismissal. The decision stands firm despite foreign pressure because Haiti makes decisions based on national interests, not external diplomatic considerations. Fils-Aimé failed to address rampant insecurity and utilized only 30% of the security budget allocated to combat violence.

Narrative B

Every decision affecting Haiti's future must prioritize the general interest over partisan considerations, with the Haitian people at the center of public action — and this is not the case here. This is a decisive year for Haiti, and the country must focus on restoring security, state authority and constitutional order. The electoral process must become the absolute priority and main point of convergence to restore democratic legitimacy after nearly ten years without free elections.

Nerd narrative

There's a 74% chance that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'état before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-government narrative

Postponing elections allows councils to focus on delivering much-needed reorganization that will eliminate wasteful duplication of two-tier bureaucracy. Despite rampant misinformation, elections have not been canceled and residents will vote in May 2027 for new unified councils that operate from April 2028, serving communities better in the long term.

Government-critical narrative

Cancelling local elections conveniently shields a deeply unpopular government from facing voters at the ballot box. The timing reeks of political cowardice, especially when polling shows Reform would have won across the board in these areas. Preaching about democratic values abroad while denying local enfranchisement exposes the hypocrisy at the heart of this government.

Nerd narrative

There is a 60% chance that there will be a Labour Party election before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The WHO proved itself corrupt during COVID by pushing lockdowns and dangerous vaccines while serving as a globalist arm of Big Pharma. After 77 years of America funding an organization that puts China first, this withdrawal reclaims sovereignty and stops billions in taxpayer dollars from flowing to an unaccountable body that failed the world.

Anti-Trump narrative

Withdrawing from the WHO creates a dangerous vacuum that China will exploit while weakening American biosecurity at the worst possible time. With threats like climate-driven pathogens accelerating, abandoning the world's unparalleled disease detection network leaves Americans more vulnerable to the next pandemic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the WHO will announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Iran's brutal crackdown has killed thousands of protesters demanding freedom, and decisive military action remains necessary to support those risking their lives against a murderous regime. The U.S. has rapidly deployed carrier strike groups, F-15Es and advanced air defenses to the region — creating real options to cripple the Revolutionary Guard's repression apparatus. Tehran's threats of retaliation and warnings about attacking Americans only confirm the regime's desperation as economic collapse fuels nationwide uprising.

Anti-Trump narrative

Military strikes against Iran would be unnecessary and counterproductive now that sanctions and internal pressures have already weakened the regime significantly. Arab states across the region, including longtime U.S. allies in the Gulf, are actively lobbying against American intervention because Israeli expansionism has become the primary regional threat. Bombing Iran risks igniting civil war, rallying millions to defend the Islamic Republic and destabilizing vital energy corridors through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pro-Iran narrative

Trump's threats are pure imperialism — weaponizing deaths caused by his own sanctions to justify war for Israeli-U.S. dominance. Iran has defended itself against CIA-backed chaos for decades, while keeping diplomacy open. American strikes would slaughter civilians, ignite massive resistance, and trigger regional catastrophe — proving Washington, not Tehran, destabilizes the Middle East through endless regime change wars benefiting only Zionist expansionism.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by March 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.