Everything You Need To Know About The Indiana And Ohio Primaries
FiveThirtyEightOct 26, 2022
The Facts
Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan will compete to fill GOP Ohio Sen. Rob Portman's position after winning their respective primaries on Tues.
Primary contests were also held in Indiana, where incumbent GOP Gov., Mike DeWine faced-down challenges from 3 Republican competitors.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
After initially deeming Trump "a total fraud" and suggesting that some of his supporters were "racist", Vance made an opportunistic U-turn to garner the disgraced former president's support in the primaries. Vance nonsensically blames Washington for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has dismissed events in Ukraine as a "smokescreen." The US cannot expect to lead the free world by electing these sorts of politicians.
Republican narrative
The party is still in the grip of Trump and it's imperative that the GOP puts itself on a corrective course as soon as possible. As long as his clout continues suppressing moderate and mainstream conservatism among Republicans, the party risks obstructing its chances of winning the popular vote.
Pro-Trump narrative
Vance's success is testament to the continuing influence of Trump over GOP voters in Ohio, where Trump won by 8 percentage points in the 2020 election. Ohio's primaries were a referendum on the kind of country Americans want to live in - and those voters have rejected establishment Republicans.
Establishment-critical narrative
The results of Tuesday's primaries, like those of other American elections, were not about politics but money. Millionaire candidates and their billionaire backers poured cash into the Ohio races; they will expect a significant return on that investment in the form of political influence. Vance was among three self-funders who spent a combined $14M on their campaigns.
