Belarus sentences dissident’s girlfriend to six years in prison
Al JazeeraJUL 2022
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The report confirms that the Lukashenko regime provoked this entire incident not only to arrest Protasevich but also to show dissidents they can be seized even while in the air. The international community must give a strong response to this de-facto military hijack of a civilian plane, a clear breach of the principles of international aviation.
Establishment-critical narrative
While investigations should focus on preventing similar incidents in the future, Western countries have used this situation to blame Belarus based on an unauthenticated record shared by an anonymous air traffic controller. This politically-biased report damages ICAO's credibility as an institution as it contains inaccuracies and questionable methodology.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that Alexander Lukashenko will leave power in Belarus by March 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
