America Can’t Shed Its Big-Brother Persona
AtlanticJUN 2022
Biden convinced that Russia will invade Ukraine Within Days
story
Image copyright: AP [via New York Post]
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Recent alarmist White House invasion predictions have failed to materialize. Even Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has downplayed the threat of a Russian assault.
Pro-establishment narrative
In terms of combat power, logistical support, medical support and combat aviation, Russian actions near Ukraine's borders contradict the official retreat claims.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously could solve the Ukraine crisis.
Anti-Russia narrative
Putin wants to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes false pretext and massive bloodshed.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 77% chance Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
