The Facts
- In an interview with 60 Minutes that aired Sunday, Biden vowed the US would defend Taiwan in the case of an “unprecedented attack” by China, including by sending American troops.
- However, a White House official backtracked these remarks, claiming that the US's "strategic ambiguity" on deploying troops to defend Taiwan hasn't changed.
- Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US fears that Beijing could potentially attack Taiwan have generally increased. Last week, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced a bill to expand support to Taiwan and designate it a non-NATO ally.
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The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Biden once understood the subtleties of US-Taiwan-China dynamics, but now he seems to be itching for a fight. Despite the White House walking back the president’s words, Beijing has no choice but to look at the rhetoric and action Congress is taking, and assume the US is escalating. These tensions were avoidable.
Pro-establishment narrative
Biden's words send a strong message about global democracy to authoritarians worldwide. It’s China who has been saber-rattling over Taiwan, possibly because the PRC is inspired by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So while Biden’s words don’t change "official" US policy on Taiwan, they show a willingness to tighten the bond while sending a strong message to US allies.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 65% chance that if China invades Taiwan before 2035, the US respond with military forces according to the Metaculus prediction community.
