Biden Vows to Defend Taiwan If China Attacks

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    The Spin

    Anti-China narrative

    The US' traditional strategy of ambiguity with regard to Taipei must be reformed in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Washington must make it clear that a Chinese attack would backfire, leading to the complete independence of Taiwan and the isolation of Beijing.

    Pro-China narrative

    The US is playing political games. Regardless, even if Washington were to abandon its commitment to the one-China policy, the declining nation has long since lacked the leverage to intimidate China.

    Metaculus Prediction

    There is a 5% chance that there will be a military conflict between the PRC (China) and ROC (Taiwan) before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

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