U.S. lawmakers signal support for Taiwan in visit
NPR Online NewsJUL 2022
China Stages Military Exercises After US Reps Visit Taiwan
Image copyright: Taiwan Presidential Office [via AP]
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
China must have no doubt that invading Taiwan will have severe consequences. The US traditional strategy of ambiguity with regard to Taipei must be reformed in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Washington must stand for freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in the Pacific.
Pro-China narrative
US lawmakers are acting irresponsibly with their various official visits to Taiwan and public declarations in favor of its secession. The US should respect the agreed upon one-China policy. The PRC doesn't want a conflict but it's prepared to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Metaculus Prediction
The Metaculus Community predicts a 8% chance that there will be a military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan before 2023.
