China-Taiwan Tensions Continue Under Backdrop of Ukraine Invasion

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    The Spin

    Anti-China narrative

    Putin's invasion of Ukraine just made a PRC invasion of Taiwan more likely. Xi Jinping is more aggressive than his predecessors, and China, not Russia, is the true spearhead of global authoritarianism. The autocrats are striking back.

    Narrative B

    Despite the rampant speculation amindst the shockwaves from Russia's invasion are being felt in Taiwan, military action remains unlikely and outside events will have relatively little effect on Beijing's calculations.

    Metaculus Prediction

    There's an 10% chance there'll be a military conflict between Taiwan and China before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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