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Taiwan warns Chinese aircraft flying in air defense zone day of Russia-Ukraine invasion
FOX NewsJUL 2022
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
Putin's invasion of Ukraine just made a PRC invasion of Taiwan more likely. Xi Jinping is more aggressive than his predecessors, and China, not Russia, is the true spearhead of global authoritarianism. The autocrats are striking back.
Narrative B
Despite the rampant speculation amindst the shockwaves from Russia's invasion are being felt in Taiwan, military action remains unlikely and outside events will have relatively little effect on Beijing's calculations.
Metaculus Prediction
There's an 10% chance there'll be a military conflict between Taiwan and China before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
