Today's D Brief: Kyiv, Moscow dig in for long fight; Russia salvaging old missiles; House GOP natsec forecast; US attack ISIS in Syria; And a bit more.
Defense OneJUN 2022
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.
Pro-Russia narrative
Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 7.75M internally displaced Ukrainians by the end of 2022 (based on UN estimations), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
