Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Changes What We Know About State Power
AtlanticJUL 2022
Day 127 Roundup: Heavy Fighting in Lysychansk, UK to Provide Additional £1B in Aid
Image copyright: EPA [via Al Jazeera]
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Sweden and Finland's decision to join NATO wouldn't be without risks. Despite the rapid evolution of public opinion there isn't clear majority support for the move in either nation and even an immediate application could take months to process, leaving them vulnerable to a strike by an enraged Vladimir Putin.
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin has sorely miscalculated this invasion. Western nations have shown exceptional resilience and solidarity in response to Russia's assault on democracy and the geopolitical power balance in Europe. It is very unlikely the Kremlin will retaliate against Finland and Sweden joining NATO, especially as it's reckless attack on Ukraine has decimated its military resources.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 12% chance that there will be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
