Day 127 Roundup: Heavy Fighting in Lysychansk, UK to Provide Additional £1B in Aid
The Facts
- Fighting continued in and around the city of Lysychansk in the Luhansk Oblast on Thurs., as Russian forces continue moving to encircle Ukrainian positions in the area. The UK Ministry of Defense have advised that Ukrainian troops should ultimately withdraw to avoid encirclement.
- The city has been under constant Russian shelling, making evacuation difficult, and around 15k people remain in Lysychansk, according to Ukrainian officials.
- Elsewhere, Russia's defense ministry said that its troops withdrew from Snake Island in the Black Sea on Thurs. as a "gesture of goodwill" aimed at demonstrating Moscow's support for efforts to restart food exports from Ukraine's ports.
Sources Split
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The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Sweden and Finland's decision to join NATO wouldn't be without risks. Despite the rapid evolution of public opinion there isn't clear majority support for the move in either nation and even an immediate application could take months to process, leaving them vulnerable to a strike by an enraged Vladimir Putin.
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin has sorely miscalculated this invasion. Western nations have shown exceptional resilience and solidarity in response to Russia's assault on democracy and the geopolitical power balance in Europe. It is very unlikely the Kremlin will retaliate against Finland and Sweden joining NATO, especially as it's reckless attack on Ukraine has decimated its military resources.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 12% chance that there will be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
