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Washington PostJUL 2022
Day 82: Moscow Warnings Over NATO Membership, EU Pushes Oil Sanctions
Image copyright: AP [via The Independant]
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine is pushing the two countries closer to NATO membership than ever before, and Moscow's threats against Finland and Sweden have backfired. As sovereign states, they're entitled to choose their own national security strategy and Russia's aggressiveness simply pushes them toward NATO.
Pro-Russia narrative
Finland invaded Russia in 1941 together with German troops. NATO's land borders with the Russian Federation will more than double if Sweden and Finland join the alliance. NATO has ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification, and NATO's aerial bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999 is proof of the organization's aggressiveness.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 95% chance that Finland will join NATO by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
