Putin’s Doomsday Scenario
AtlanticJUN 2022
Day 263: New Restrictions in Kherson as City Faces Shortages of Electricity, Food and Water
Image copyright: The Washington Post
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 22% chance of a coup or regime change in Russia during 2022 according to the Metaculus prediction community.
