Day 62: Russia Accuses NATO of 'Proxy War' in Ukraine as US Hosts Security Summit

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    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Irrespective of whether it was a change in US policy or a long-held position only admitted now, Defense Sec. Austin's remarks show a clear shift in Washington's thinking. The US can now capitalize on Russia's failed attempt to take Kyiv and can weaken it militarily for the benefit of wider security interests.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Austin's statements reveal what the US has always wanted in Ukraine – to draw Russia into this conflict and prolong it as long as possible by supplying weaponry, thus giving Russia its Vietnam and leading to the demise of Putin. Even if this comes at the cost of millions of Ukrainians.

    Metaculus Prediction

    There's a 7% chance that Russia will annex the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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