Russia heavily shells residential areas in eastern Ukraine
PBS NewsHourJUL 2022
Day 173 Roundup: Russia Advancing on Bakhmut in Donetsk; Ukraine Strikes Headquarters of Russia's Wagner Group
Image copyright: AP Photos [via AP News]
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 22% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by Dec. 31, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
