Russia-Ukraine war live updates: Moscow launches a new phase of the conflict
NBCJUL 2022
Day 55 Roundup: Russian Donbas Assault Begins, Mariupol Refuses to Surrender
Image copyright: AP Photos [via AP News]
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
With Russia's troops outstretched and suffering heavy losses in the north, Putin has re-maneuvered to try and gain the strategically important Donbas region. With 44k Ukrainian troops stationed in the Donbas, the battle for the region could influence the course of the whole war – and Putin's grand plan to restore the Soviet empire.
Pro-Russia narrative
As stated by Putin, the purpose of the war was never to capture Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic brutality by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv. This tragedy would have been avoided if NATO had kept its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification.
Metaculus Prediction
According to the Metaculus prediction community, there's a 35% chance that Zelenskyy and Putin will meet to discuss a peaceful resolution to the conflict before 2023.
