After 100 days of war, Russia shows no signs of leaving Ukraine
PBS NewsHourJUL 2022
Day 101: Ukraine Reclaims Ground In Severodonetsk As Russia Pushes For Complete Control of Luhansk
Image copyright: AP [via The Guardian]
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Establishment-critical narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
