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Is Russia’s Nuclear About-Face More or Less Credible Than Its Earlier Threats?
Defense OneJUL 2022
Day 256: US Reportedly Urges Ukraine to Engage in Talks; Iran Acknowledges Sending Drones to Russia 'Months' Before War
Image copyright: The Washington Post
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 2% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
