Ethiopian Army Captures Three Towns In Tigray

Image copyright: Associated Press [via France 24]

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The international community has enabled the federal government to wage this genocidal war, commit atrocities, and eliminate the people of Tigray in a heinous attempt to control the region and ultimately redraw the Horn of Africa. Foreign actors have failed to solve this crisis – the only way to put an end to this conflict is to allow Tigrayans to decide whether they want to remain in Ethiopia or become an independent nation.

Pro-establishment narrative

The federal government and many other actors have attempted to send humanitarian aid and essential goods to help the people of Tigray during this conflict, but the so-called Tigrayan rebel forces have looted and confiscated deliveries for their own benefit. They're terrorists who've been prolonging the war in order to avoid facing accountability for the atrocities they've committed for 27 years.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 60% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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