North Korea Tests Suspected Submarine-Launched Missile

    Image copyright: AP [via New York Times]

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    North Korea's actions pose a severe threat to the stability of the Korean peninsula and the security of the rest of the world. The US has so far failed to negotiate an end to nuclear weapons in exchange for humanitarian aid - it's time for some new ideas about how to resolve this threat.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Though Kim may seem like a madman, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief, after successive American administrations derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.

    Metaculus Prediction

    There is a 50% chance that there will be more than 9800 nuclear weapons globally in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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