Report: DOJ Investigating Trump's Inner Circle

    Image copyright: AP [via The Washington Post]

    The Facts

    • The Washington Post reported on Tues. that Justice Dept. prosecutors have questioned witnesses, including top aides to VP Pence, about conversations with former Pres. Trump and his allies on reversing his election loss.

    • This disclosure indicates that the DOJ's investigation has entered into a new phase focused on Trump's actions, including an alleged fake electors plan. Nevertheless, no criminal investigation into him has been opened as of yet.


    The Spin

    Democratic narrative

    The DOJ, after following the congressional hearings and conducting their investigations, now clearly has enough evidence to prosecute Trump. Though it would break the precedent of not taking legal action against a former president, the fact that even Republican lawyers and politicians have acknowledged his culpability proves the DOJ needs to act now so Trump doesn't get a pass on his egregious crimes.

    Pro-Trump narrative

    The Democrats already tried and failed twice to impeach Trump, so the Jan. 6 Committee and DOJ's investigations are their third attempt at preventing him from running in 2024. Neither the "Russia hoax," nor Robert Mueller's investigation, brought to light any real evidence of criminality, and the current investigations will come to the same conclusion. The Democrats are facing a trouncing in the upcoming elections.

    Narrative C

    There is little doubt that prosecuting Trump and the subsequent political violence from his supporters will strain the nation. It may even lurch America towards civil war if states threaten succession due to the trial or if Trump loses the 2024 election. It's deeply sad that the country could potentially tear itself apart in this process.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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