The Spin
Republican narrative
Even before this second and final debate, the polls were showing Vance in the lead. After his fierce performance last night and with Ryan proving himself to be a race-baiter, Vance only looks stronger and stronger with the election fast approaching.
Democratic narrative
Though American voters clearly sent a message of distaste for Donald Trump in 2020, Vance has kept the former president in the spotlight, which is a bad move. Ohioans are tired of this type of rhetoric and want to return to a more moderate policy — something Ryan is ready to offer.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 72% chance that J.D Vance will win the 2022 US Senate election in Ohio, according to the Metaculus prediction community.