US Blacklists Chinese Drone Giant

Image copyright: Robert Delaney/South China Morning Post

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

This is a much needed move to mitigate threats to US national security. Although they may focus on developing civil technologies, these firms are deeply entangled with the military-industrial complex, as the Chinese Communist Party actively promotes military-civil fusion in order to expand and modernize its forces.

Pro-China narrative

As the US continues its baseless crackdown on China's scientific and technological rise to maintain its sci-tech hegemony, Washington is only ensuring its own downfall. This move may provoke short-term damage, but its long-term impact will be limited considering the US's direct investment in China represents only 2% of all foreign investment.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 10% chance that there will be active warfare between the US and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO