U.S. Economy Shrank 1.6% at the Start of 2022—Though Recession Is Not Imminent, Economists Say
TimeJUL 2022
The Spin
Republican narrative
Biden's $1.9T American Rescue Plan was like pouring gasoline on the inflationary fire. Had it been optimally sized, we would have fewer problems and less inflation. When the Fed raises interest rates to cool down the economy, there's a risk that demand and investment go down, which could leave Biden with a painful recession on his hands.
Democratic narrative
It's a bizarre argument that the Biden administration's American Rescue Plan is to blame for the 40-year high inflation rate. The US is in a better economic position than many other countries to overcome the current bout of inflation, which is being driven by global factors well beyond the control of the US president.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that the highest real GDP growth in the US will be at least 5.99% by Q1 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
