The US has now regained all the jobs it lost in the pandemic
Business InsiderJUN 2022
The Spin
Narrative A
The stunning job growth numbers make it even tougher to determine whether the US is really slipping into a recession. Despite the slowing down of the post-pandemic boom, the strong job market is a good forward indicator for the US economy.
Narrative B
The labor market isn't the reason why the US has suffered from inflation, but it will be part of the reason why it will be difficult to escape. The continued gains in jobs and wages are fundamentally at odds with the central bank's goal of price and wage stability. Inflation continues to soar and the economy remains overheated.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that the average US unemployment rate will be at least 4.96% between 2022 and 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
