US, Taiwan Begin Formal Trade Talks

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Image copyright: Reuters

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

This trade initiative is economic in nature and not a provocation by the US against China. The US government still recognizes China's legal and governmental sovereignty over Taiwan; any military response from Beijing would be an outlandish escalation on China's part.

Wall Street Journal

Pro-China narrative

This latest move is yet another blatant challenge to the One China policy under the guise of trade cooperation. It's an attempt to limit the island's reliance on the Chinese mainland and expand its so-called international space - a direct threat to PRC sovereignty.

American Conservative

Metaculus Prediction

While the US has a long history of protecting South Pacific nations from communist invasion, the world has changed and the US isn't the sole power in Asia. China has become equal to the US and, in some ways, outgrown it both economically and militarily. Risking a war with China over an island they claim as theirs is not worth the consequences.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 26% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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