Thousands flee flood waters as UN warns of 'grave' impact from Ukraine dam breach
USA TodayJUL 2023
At Least 8 Dead in Kherson Floods as Zelenskyy Visits Region
Image copyright: Armyinform [via Wikimedia]
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Only Russia would benefit from bringing down the Nova Kakhovka dam. Such a move protects its forces from any Ukrainian offensives in the Kherson region. Ukraine has nothing to gain by causing the floods and harming its own military and economic interests.
Pro-Russia narrative
Ukraine is responsible for causing the dam collapse, knowing that it has the full backing of its Western partners and that it can act with impunity. Ukrainian officials had even told the Washington Post that it conducted test strikes against the Nova Kakhovka dam to cause the exact consequences we are now seeing.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 4% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of Sevastopol in Crimea on January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
