As Primaries Wind Down, Here’s a Look at the Performance of Trump’s Candidates
New York TimesJUL 2022
The Spin
Republican narrative
This continues the barrage of bad news for Biden, and Republicans should be motivated. Americans, even in his own party, are acknowledging the terrible job he’s doing. Beware, though, because a desperate Biden is going to try to scare voters to pull out a win. But the electorate should see through his scare tactics and pull the lever for the GOP nominee.
Democratic narrative
These results should be taken with a grain of salt: From disinformation to conspiracy theories, the forecasts are tainted by a largely uninformed electorate and media that's hyper-fixated on ratings — which are a notoriously fluctuating metric. Biden is doing a great job and, just as the political analysis in the lead-up to the midterms was wrong, will likely prevail this coming year.
Metaculus Prediction
There’s a 40% chance that Trump will beat Biden – if they’re the nominees – in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
