Day 322: Head of Russia's Wagner Group Says His Troops Control Soledar

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The Facts

  • The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has claimed that his forces have taken control of the small but significant Donetsk town of Soledar after weeks of fierce fighting. If confirmed, control of the town, which lies nine miles (15km) north of Bakhmut, would mark Russia's first battlefield breakthrough since the summer.

  • Posting a picture of himself surrounded by Wagner forces, in what appeared to be one of Soledar's salt mines, Prigozhin said: "Wagner units have taken the whole territory of Soledar under control." He added that Ukrainian troops were surrounded in the centre of the town and that: "There are street battles ongoing. The number of prisoners taken will be announced tomorrow."


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

If Russia has in fact taken control of Soledar, it would be a hollow victory as it has little military or tactical benefit and it will not improve Russia's prospects elsewhere. Whatever happens in this isolated incident, Ukraine will win the wider war.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's liberation of Soledar is extremely significant as it paves the way for Russian encirclement of Bakhmut, as well as further advances in the Donetsk region which it will soon completely control.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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