Day 384: Russia Says Grain Deal Extension Agreed; Doesn't Recognize International Criminal Court

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The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has agreed to a 60-day extension to the grain deal in the hope that sanctions and barriers to the export of Russian grain and fertilizer is eased within this time. If it's not, Russia will have to withdraw from the agreement.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite Russia's claims on food and fertilizer exports, the allegation that the US or Western countries have blocked these is simply not true. In fact, the data shows Russia's food and fertilizer exports have returned to pre-war levels.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 23% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO