Day 382: Russian Advance Stalled In Bakhmut, US Think Tank Says

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The Facts

  • Despite Russian units from the paramilitary Wagner PMC launching continued ground attacks in Bakhmut, they are finding it difficult to make any significant advances in the eastern Ukrainian city, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank covering military affairs, said late Saturday.

  • The ISW's report comes following claims from Wagner PMC chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his fighters had moved closer to capturing Bakhmut. In a video post, he stated: "That's about a five-story building where the smoke comes from — the building of the city administration, the administrative center of the city. It's one kilometer and two hundred meters away."


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Artyomovsk is a strategically significant transport hub and logistical center for the Ukrainian army. Ukraine's forces have already sustained huge losses — including several of their best brigades — fighting to keep control of the city and Moscow's forces now have the upper hand on the ground. Artyomovsk will be a key victory for Russia in the wider battle for control of the Donbass.

Anti-Russia narrative

Even if Russian forces do gain control of Bakhmut, it would not represent a decisive shift in the war. The development would be much more of a symbolic than strategic victory and, while Russia continues to funnel troops and resources into Bakhmut in the hope of being able to publicize some positive news about the invasion, Kyiv is making a more considered strategic assessment of its troops' position in view of the wider conflict.


Metaculus Prediction


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