Dow Plummets as Investors Await Next Fed Move

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The Facts

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) stock index plummeted by over 500 points, or 1.5%, by mid-Thursday in response to a better-than-expected US job growth report; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also dropped 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Stocks recovered slightly by the closing bell to around a 350-point end-of-day drop.

  • According to payment processing firm ADP, private sector jobs increased by 497K in June, the largest gain since July 2022 and more than double the Dow consensus estimate of 220K and much more than the 267k additional jobs in May.


The Spin

Left narrative

Today's recession alarmists are similar to the old-school gold standard obsessives, except this time it's Silicon Valley's elite who are pushing the conspiracy that government spending can't help with inflation. The facts are that the US still hasn't hit a recession and, although not quite where we want it to be, inflation is going down — even alongside a strong job market. The economic data coming from the government is real, but it's pointing to the opposite of the gloomy picture being painted.

Right narrative

Despite left-wing rhetoric about 'Bidenomics,' the facts are that the stock market has shrunk 10% since 2022, the average monthly mortgage payment has jumped from $1,100 to $2,200, and, even as inflation slowly goes down, the prices of goods have been so deeply embedded in the economy that regular Americans will feel them for a long time. This all stems from Biden's original $1.9T American rescue plan but has worsened under his continued reckless spending as well as rising interest rates.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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