Essequibo Dispute: Venezuela and Guyana Agree Not to Use Force

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While this deal has eased fears of war following weeks of Venezuelan aggression, it doesn't mean that Guyana will retreat from its position of sovereignty over Essequibo. The ICJ must provide a final ruling on the matter, and it is up to Venezuela and them alone to come to terms with the legal norms that continue to preside over global current affairs.

Establishment-critical narrative

Although the tense meeting has not produced an immediate end to tension, it was certainly a diplomatic breakthrough after repeated refusals by Guyanese officials to engage in direct dialogue with their Venezuelan counterparts and prospects of a US military intervention to help Guyana protect the interests of ExxonMobil. The ICJ has no jurisdiction over this matter, so a bilateral deal must be found.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 30% chance that Venezuela will invade Guyana before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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