Guyana and Venezuela leaders meet as Caribbean region pushes to defuse territorial dispute
PBS NewsHourJUL 2023
Essequibo Dispute: Venezuela and Guyana Agree Not to Use Force
Image copyright: Stringer/Getty Images News [via Getty Images]
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
While this deal has eased fears of war following weeks of Venezuelan aggression, it doesn't mean that Guyana will retreat from its position of sovereignty over Essequibo. The ICJ must provide a final ruling on the matter, and it is up to Venezuela and them alone to come to terms with the legal norms that continue to preside over global current affairs.
Establishment-critical narrative
Although the tense meeting has not produced an immediate end to tension, it was certainly a diplomatic breakthrough after repeated refusals by Guyanese officials to engage in direct dialogue with their Venezuelan counterparts and prospects of a US military intervention to help Guyana protect the interests of ExxonMobil. The ICJ has no jurisdiction over this matter, so a bilateral deal must be found.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 30% chance that Venezuela will invade Guyana before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
