Italy: Storm Ciaran Causes Deadly Flooding in Tuscany

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The Facts

  • On Friday as Storm Ciaran moved through western Europe, local officials in central Italy announced that five people had been killed in Tuscany as a result of heavy rainfall and devastating riverine flooding.

  • Eugenio Giani, the president of Tuscany, declared a state of emergency and said, "It has been a long and complex night for the entire regional civil protection system."


The Spin

Narrative A

Storm Ciaran will be ranked among the top 40 most devastating storms to occur since 1980 and it should serve as a wake-up call to the dangers of climate change. Weather systems like tropical cyclones and broader patterns like El Nino are directly tied to sea ice and global temperatures. If we don't act soon these weather patterns will be irreversible and the impacts endless, and Europe is very much on the front line.

Narrative B

European governments have increased the speed of their climate adaptation plans. Not only are these nations aiming to reach net-zero emissions sooner, but they are also focusing on a multi-sector approach to infrastructure advancements that will incorporate resilient improvements in technology and nature-based solutions. Europe is at the cutting edge of adapting to climate threats.

Narrative C

It's easy to dismiss any extreme weather event as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors that have nothing to do with it. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.


Metaculus Prediction


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