The Facts
- Japan on Monday put its ballistic missile defenses on alert, vowing to use its Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) or Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) to destroy any projectile that threatened its territory.
- This comes as Japan's Defense Ministry issued an order to shoot down any North Korean missile that enters its territory after Pyongyang notified Tokyo of its intention to launch a "satellite" in the coming two weeks.
- According to the Japanese Coast Guard, the notice stated that the launch window was from May 31 to June 11 and that it could affect waters in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and east of the island of Luzon in the Philippines.
Sources Split
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea's satellite launch is a dangerous provocation that cannot be allowed to proceed. A working spy satellite would strengthen Pyongyang's ability to conduct a pre-emptive strike as well as monitor potential incoming threats from the US and South Korea.
Establishment-critical narrative
North Korea's satellite program is simply defensive in nature. Pyongyang has a right to exercise its sovereignty and justifiable self-defense in response to the confrontational moves made by Washington and Seoul. A successful launch will help defend North Korea against future attacks by the hegemonic US and South Korea.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 72% chance that Japan Self-Defense Forces will have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.