Kyiv Claims 'Russian Sabotage Group' Blew Up Dam

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The Facts

  • The domestic Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Friday cited a phone call between two Russian-speaking men as evidence that a "Russian sabotage group" blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and dam. In the clip posted to Telegram, the men are allegedly heard saying, "They (the Ukrainians) didn't strike it. That was our sabotage group."

  • While Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy claims it was a Russian "terrorist attack," the mayor of the nearby city of Novaya Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontyev, said the incident—located in Russia’s Kherson Region which has left 14 settlements inhabiting 22K people at risk of flooding—was conducted by a Ukrainian multiple launch rocket system.


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian troops have been in control of the Kakhovka hydro plant and dam since February of last year. Since then, it has been Ukrainian officials, cited by the Washington Post, who have proposed striking the infrastructure with NATO-supplied rocket artillery. Before the dam's collapse, Ukraine had also raised the water levels of the Kakhovka reservoir to record levels, placing further pressure on the facility. There was no good reason for either side to commit such sabotage, but one thing is for sure: it was not done by Russia.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

While no one knows yet exactly what or who is behind the Kakhovka dam collapse, the evidence seems to point toward Russia. As Ukraine was set to launch its counter-offensive, Russia likely feared Kyiv would use the road running above to transport troops over the river and into Russian territory. This also comes as Russia has attacked several other dams throughout the war.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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