Libya Floods: Death Toll Rises to 11.3K

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The Facts

  • The death toll in Libya's coastal city of Derna has risen to at least 11.3K as search efforts continue following a catastrophic flash flood caused by the collapse of two aging dams in heavy torrential rains.

  • In addition to the deaths, the Libyan Red Crescent reported that more than 10K people are still missing after Mediterranean storm Daniel pounded Derna last weekend.


The Spin

Narrative A

Years of conflict in Libya have left its 7M residents vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate, including droughts, extreme heat, sea-level rise, and food and water insecurity. Over-dependence on oil exports and a lack of investment in agriculture and energy infrastructure have left isolated local governments burdened with the responsibility of securing a livable future in the country.

Narrative B

Libya is politically divided between East and West thanks to the 2011 NATO-backed uprising. Still, though Libya remains in an extreme emergency, both governments are united in sending aid and funds to the affected areas. Additionally, the country is collaborating with the UN to create a bright future with renewable energy, environmental sustainability, and clean water — all of which will contribute to its future political stability.


Metaculus Prediction


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