Ukraine drives back Russian forces around Bakhmut
NBCJUN 2023
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Drawing context from the statements of Prigozhin and the Russian defense ministry's responses — as well as from geolocated footage that showed a recent reversal of positions in some areas — Ukraine likely did regain territory that was recently held by Moscow.
Pro-Russia narrative
Reports of Ukrainian advances are false. Russian troops have continued to repel all Ukrainian attacks, while offensive operations are still ongoing in several regions. Moscow continues to hold the majority of Bakhmut, or Artyomovsk in Russian.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 7% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by Jan.1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
