It's concerning that the IOC would risk violating its dedication to fairness and justice by allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes, under any circumstances, to compete on the world’s biggest athletic stage. Russian athletes may not be directly linked to their country’s transgressions, but they’re not separated by too many steps. A ruling on athletes due to global geopolitical factors is warranted.
While it's understandable that the IOC wants to show support for Ukrainian athletes, it should not do so at the expense of Russian and Belarusian athletes. Such exclusions would amount to discrimination based on nationality and would violate the Olympic Charter and international human rights standards.
There's a 50% chance that Russian athletes will be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.