Today's D Brief: Ukraine’s progress; Russia’s drone ambitions; Hypersonic breakthrough?; ‘Barbaric’ ICE detention; And a bit more.
Defense OneJUL 2023
Report: Kyiv's Counteroffensive Will Fail to Meet Key Goal
Image copyright: US Defense Dept. [via Wikimedia Commons]
The Spin
Narrative A
Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine can penetrate Russia's multilayered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?
Narrative B
While the Ukrainian offensive may be advancing slowly against well-prepared Russian defensive lines, they continue to push forward and gain momentum in several axes of attack. Kyiv's forces will undoubtedly achieve their goals.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
