Report: US Could Default as Soon as July

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The Facts

  • The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday predicted that unless the current $31.4T cap on borrowing — which the US reached on Jan. 19 — is raised or suspended, the Treasury Department will no longer be able to pay all of its bills sometime between July and September this year.

  • The final projection will be determined by tax revenues received in April, with the CBO warning that if they don't meet expectations, a default could occur before July.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Republicans are holding the debt ceiling hostage in order to dismantle American welfare programs. Though raising the debt ceiling isn't a big deal in comparison to the repercussions of doing nothing, the new GOP majority is only too happy to continue with a stalemate as a government closedown will favor them. It's likely that the US will once again take a ride on the same stopgap merry-go-round as always, to the detriment of average Americans.

Republican narrative

The chief financial officer of the US is begging Congress to increase the nation's credit line because lawmakers continually spend more money than they have. Democrats have been likened to an out-of-control child with a credit card, already having given nearly $100B to Ukraine while Americans struggle to pay for gas and groceries. Hopefully, this emergency will serve as a wake-up call to those in power to manage the nation's finances responsibly.


Metaculus Prediction


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