Russia Amasses 40K Troops in Preparation for Donetsk Assault

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The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Russia has pounded Avdiivka for a month, but all they have achieved is the losses of thousands of men and equipment. Ukraine's defense forces continue to hold the line and will fight every meter of territory.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine's counteroffensive has ground to a halt and now Russia is launching renewed offfensive operations. Meanwhile, Western support for Ukraine is drying up. Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs to see the writing on the wall and realize that he cannot defeat Russia militarily.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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