SpaceX will fly Russian cosmonauts to the ISS under new NASA deal with Russia's space agency
Business InsiderJUN 2022
The Spin
Narrative A
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sparked a backlash among Russia's space agency partners. However, despite the political turmoil on Earth, the US and Russia have been able to continue to collaborate at the ISS. Elon Musk's SpaceX Crew Dragon revived NASA's human spaceflight capability and is now the guarantor of US-Russian cooperation in space.
Narrative B
The ISS stands as one of the few remaining areas where Russian and American cooperation is still operating successfully. However, if Russia doesn't act soon to reform its oppressive regime and begin governing within the bounds of international law, there isn't much of a future for its role within the space program beyond the ISS.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 22 people in space April 12, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
