UK Conservatives Sustain Major Local Election Losses

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The Spin

Left narrative

The early results showed the Conservatives have lost a third of their council seats, and Labour is on course for a majority Labour government in the next general election. The success of the Labour Party has come about because it has focused on the number one issue facing voters — the cost of living crisis. The Tories have crashed the economy, and they don't know how to fix it.

Right narrative

Thursday's local election was quite disappointing for the Conservatives, but Labour has not made as much progress as needed to win the next general election. Tories are still looking strong in key election battlegrounds and there is neither an overwhelming groundswell of movement toward the Labour Party nor excitement for their far-left agenda. The Tories may be ready to play the Boris Johnson card.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that Labour will win at least 325 seats in the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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