UK Conservatives Sustain Major Local Election Losses

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The Facts

  • The UK's governing Conservative party faced a bleak set of local election results on Friday, with voters reacting to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his party within the context of political scandals, surging inflation, and stagnant economic growth.

  • Thursday's local government elections were the first big test of Sunak's popularity since becoming prime minister. It is also seen as a key test for the Conservatives, who have been in power for 13 years.


The Spin

Left narrative

The early results showed the Conservatives have lost a third of their council seats, and Labour is on course for a majority Labour government in the next general election. The success of the Labour Party has come about because it has focused on the number one issue facing voters — the cost of living crisis. The Tories have crashed the economy, and they don't know how to fix it.

Right narrative

Thursday's local election was quite disappointing for the Conservatives, but Labour has not made as much progress as needed to win the next general election. Tories are still looking strong in key election battlegrounds and there is neither an overwhelming groundswell of movement toward the Labour Party nor excitement for their far-left agenda. The Tories may be ready to play the Boris Johnson card.


Metaculus Prediction


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