UK: Polls Open in Double By-Election

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The Facts

  • Voting for the by-elections in the UK's Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth constituencies, currently held by the Conservative Party, began on Thursday.

  • Polling stations are scheduled to close at 10 p.m. local time, while results are expected on Friday morning.


The Spin

Left narrative

The by-elections will provide an opportunity for Starmer to continue his momentum. A majority of approximately 20K was overturned in Selby and Ainsty as well as in Somerton and Frome by Labour and the Lib Dems, respectively, in July. Furthermore, Labour won the seat of Rutherglen & Hamilton West on a swing of 20.4% against the SNP earlier this month. The double by-election will show that Labour can't be slowed down in its path to governance.

Right narrative

For Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth to potentially be lost on the same day would be disastrous for the Conservative Party and Rishi Sunak. Hope lies in the ability of Labour and the Lib Dems to split the opposition vote, but this should not distract the Tories from the clear resentment that has emerged throughout the UK for the governing party. There is a long way to go if Sunak has any chance to remain in power.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT