Nigel Farage rejects idea of rejoining Tory party under Rishi Sunak
GuardianJUN 2023
UK: Rwanda Law Passes Initial Parliament Vote
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The Spin
Left narrative
While Sunak will be relieved by the bill's initial passing, the Prime Minister's authority has been damaged as his own party can't even agree on this policy. Sunak now faces a prolonged period of political infighting after promising amendments to the legislation in return for support within the Commons. With only a fragile hold over the government, an early election in the new year may materialize if the Rwanda bill doesn't successfully pass through Parliament.
Right narrative
The public supports the Rwanda plan, despite frustrating blockades by the UK's judiciary. Parliament is sovereign and the government's latest treaty ensures that Rwanda will uphold its end of the deal. Judges are not policymakers and should not be expected to influence politics in this manner. The Conservative government will continue its already successful reduction in immigration — the passing of this policy in Parliament is only the beginning of stricter border security.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 12% chance that the Torries led by Rishi Sunak will form the first government after the next UK election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
