Ukraine Counteroffensive Firmly Under Way

Image copyright: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Facts

  • Although Ukraine is maintaining operational silence, multiple reports now confirm the country has launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive — attempting to claw back territory taken by Russian troops in the last 15 months of fighting in a war that has claimed heavy casualties on both sides.

  • Ukrainian mechanized brigades were reported to have launched multiple assaults in the past week, with heavy fighting reported in and around Bakhmut — the Donetsk city recently captured by Russian forces — as well as in the Russian-controlled territory of neighboring Zaporizhzhia, coveted by Ukraine as its capture could be the first step in severing Russia's "land bridge" to Crimea.


The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Over the past 48 hours, Ukraine has launched significant military operations in several sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine. In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defenses. In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower, but this is a promising start to its long-awaited counteroffensive.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia is successfully repelling Ukraine's counteroffensive. The country did indeed launch multiple waves of assaults, but Russian forces inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. Not only were thousands of troops killed, but Ukraine also lost hundreds of vehicles and other military hardware. While Ukraine's efforts are still early, its counteroffensive likely won't see success.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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