Latest drone strike in Russia damages residential building amid surge in Ukraine fighting
PBS NewsHourJUN 2023
Ukraine Counteroffensive Firmly Under Way
Image copyright: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense [via Wikimedia Commons]
The Spin
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Over the past 48 hours, Ukraine has launched significant military operations in several sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine. In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defenses. In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower, but this is a promising start to its long-awaited counteroffensive.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia is successfully repelling Ukraine's counteroffensive. The country did indeed launch multiple waves of assaults, but Russian forces inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. Not only were thousands of troops killed, but Ukraine also lost hundreds of vehicles and other military hardware. While Ukraine's efforts are still early, its counteroffensive likely won't see success.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
