Ukraine Forms Eight 'Storm' Brigades for Spring Counteroffensive

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The Facts

  • Ukraine's interior ministry said on Tuesday that it had "fully formed" eight new "storm" brigades, made up of 40K soldiers, for fighting in its spring counteroffensive amid speculation about its timing and whether it can succeed. Ihor Klymenko, the interior minister, said that the troops need an additional two to three weeks of training before engaging in "appropriate offensive assault operations."

  • Ukraine launched the recruitment drive for the new brigades — collectively named "Border of Steel" — at the beginning of February. Many of the troops were trained by Western countries outside Ukraine; the brigades were titled Hurricane, Spartan, Chervona Kalyna, Frontier, Rage, Azov, and Kara Dag — a mountain in Crimea.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Notwithstanding the new recruits, Ukraine has amassed a lot of "heavy metal" from NATO ahead of its counter-offensive. Much of that equipment hasn't previously been used by Ukraine, meaning they'll have the benefits of modern battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, as well as America's Patriot missile defense system. With a lot riding on the counteroffensive, Ukraine looks poised to retake its territory.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Ukraine's officials make the final preparations for their spring attack, they'll be acutely aware that they need to make big territorial gains and that the fate of this war may well hinge on this counteroffensive. More for geopolitical reasons than anything else. In the halls of Washington and European capitals, Western allies are preparing exit strategies and will need to see results if support for Ukraine continues.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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