The Facts
- As the fallout from a dam collapse in Kherson region continued on Thursday, Ukraine reportedly launched a "massive" assault on the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region in the country's south over the past day.
- Vladimir Rogov, head of the Russian administration in the Zaporizhzhia region, said he couldn't remember any "such massive night attacks" having taken place before, adding he believed that Ukraine must have "thought that they could shield themselves from our aviation at night and that our aircraft would operate less efficiently."
- Rogov said that multiple waves of attacks were launched near the cities of Tokmak and Orikhiv overnight, but alleged they were repelled by Russian defenses. "They have sustained huge casualties on minefields, from air and artillery strikes and they simply show disregard for losses and throw troops into action wave after wave," he said.
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The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
Despite the efforts of 1.5K specially trained Ukrainian reserves, Russian forces detected the enemy's movements and utilized artillery, aircraft, and anti-tank resources to launch a preemptive assault. This attempt to break through Russian lines has only resulted in significant losses for Kyiv.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Claims that Moscow has dealt huge casualties and losses to Ukraine's troops are implausible. The movements being made against Russian forces mark a turning point in Ukraine's offensive operations that are not just isolated to the South, but expand across the front. Reasonable progress is being made by Kyiv's forces through these operations.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.