Ukraine Launches 'Massive' Assault in Southern Zaporizhzhia

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The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Despite the efforts of 1.5K specially trained Ukrainian reserves, Russian forces detected the enemy's movements and utilized artillery, aircraft, and anti-tank resources to launch a preemptive assault. This attempt to break through Russian lines has only resulted in significant losses for Kyiv.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Claims that Moscow has dealt huge casualties and losses to Ukraine's troops are implausible. The movements being made against Russian forces mark a turning point in Ukraine's offensive operations that are not just isolated to the South, but expand across the front. Reasonable progress is being made by Kyiv's forces through these operations.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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