Ukraine Launches 'Massive' Assault in Southern Zaporizhzhia

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The Facts

  • As the fallout from a dam collapse in Kherson region continued on Thursday, Ukraine reportedly launched a "massive" assault on the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region in the country's south over the past day.

  • Vladimir Rogov, head of the Russian administration in the Zaporizhzhia region, said he couldn't remember any "such massive night attacks" having taken place before, adding he believed that Ukraine must have "thought that they could shield themselves from our aviation at night and that our aircraft would operate less efficiently."


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Despite the efforts of 1.5K specially trained Ukrainian reserves, Russian forces detected the enemy's movements and utilized artillery, aircraft, and anti-tank resources to launch a preemptive assault. This attempt to break through Russian lines has only resulted in significant losses for Kyiv.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Claims that Moscow has dealt huge casualties and losses to Ukraine's troops are implausible. The movements being made against Russian forces mark a turning point in Ukraine's offensive operations that are not just isolated to the South, but expand across the front. Reasonable progress is being made by Kyiv's forces through these operations.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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